THE REAL REASON BEHIND TRUMP'S GAZA DECISION: NATURAL GAS
The U.S. wants Russian gas out of Europe. Gaza could be the lynchpin to ensure that happens.
Today, U.S. President Donald Trump said America “will take over” the Gaza Strip, while the Palestinians who live there should be relocated to Jordan or Egypt.
One of the most crucial yet overlooked reasons behind this decision is energy.
Both Israel and Gaza have massive offshore natural gas reserves. Developing these resources could help fund Gaza's reconstruction.
But Trump needs to move fast to capitalize on this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. There is a mad scramble to push Russian natural gas out of Europe. New suppliers are being lined up. This is go time.
Let's break it down...
ISRAEL'S NATURAL GAS RESERVES
Israel's major offshore gas fields—Leviathan, Tamar, and Dalit—are already in operation and/or being explored by Chevron & several other midsized Israeli oil firms.
Just yesterday, Azerbaijan's state energy firm SOCAR acquired a 10% stake in the Tamar gas field. Did they know today's Gaza announcement was coming?
GAZA'S NATURAL GAS RESERVES
Three months BEFORE the Oct 7, 2023 attacks, Hamas made a U.S.-brokered deal to allow development of a potentially significant gas field off the coast of Gaza.
Then three months AFTER Oct 7 Israel controversially granted exploration rights to Eni (Italy), Dana Energy (UK) & Ratio Petroleum (Israel) to explore within Palestine's maritime boundaries.
While the war in Gaza has been raging major energy developments in the region have been progressing rapidly.
QATAR-TURKEY PIPELINE
The Qatar-Turkey pipeline was planned to transport gas from Qatar through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria to Turkey and Europe.
In 2009, Syria’s then-leader Bashar al-Assad rejected the project.
Now that Assad is gone?
Turkey's Energy Minister has publicly stated the plan could be revived if "Syria achieves its territorial integrity and stability." Plus, Qatar wants to diversify its export routes beyond LNG shipments to pipelines.
And now these fast-moving developments:
>Five days ago Qatar's Emir was the first head of state to visit Syria since Assad's fall.
>Yesterday Syria's leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa was in Saudi Arabia for his first official foreign trip.
>Today al-Sharaa was in Turkey meeting with President Erdogan.
Hmmm...
PERSIAN PIPELINE
Iran also has a plan to build a gas pipeline to Europe via Iraq and Syria. Called the Persian Pipeline project, there have been no development updates since 2016. Given Syria's new leadership and Iran's fast-growing political isolation, that deal won't happen any time soon.
LIBYA
Libya has been in an ongoing civil war/political crisis since the removal of dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
But things are looking up.
Two weeks ago a major oil conference was held in Tripoli with many Americans and Europeans in attendance. Today Libya's Minister of Economy & Trade went public with plans to hold a reconstruction conference ASAP.
With some of the world's largest reserves of hydrocarbons, Libya is hoping to jump back into the game in a big way.
THE PRIZE IS EUROPE
Why are all of these countries—Israel, Qatar, Libya, Syria and Turkey—moving quickly to potentially develop their gas supplies and/or pipeline capacities?
Because Europe is desperate to replace Russian energy, and whoever supplies that gas will gain significant economic and geopolitical power.
All of these players know they need to move quickly before the war in Ukraine is forgotten and Russia swoops back in.
The U.S. and EU want Russia OUT of Europe's energy supply chain. The solution? Multiple gas suppliers such as Israel, Qatar & Libya.
NOW is the time for all the gas players in the region to move.
TRUMP'S GAZA DECISION
How does relocating Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan and/or Egypt help sell gas to Europe?
1) It removes a key political obstacle. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has long been a roadblock to regional economic development.
2) Privately several Arab states told the U.S. they were in favor of hammering Hamas. By removing the Palestinians completely from Gaza this problem is solved. Plus: no terror attacks on reconstruction crews; no acts of terrorism in Israel (inviting yet another Israeli response); and no chance onshore gas facilities are sabotaged.
3) This will fast-track gas development. With U.S. backing, Gaza’s gas fields can be quickly developed without outside interference. Pipelines can be built without the constant threat of terrorism and/or civil war getting in the way.
4) Divide and conquer. Make no mistake, if the bulk of the population of Gaza stays there it will be nearly impossible to accomplish anything. Dividing them up and sending some to Egypt and the rest to Jordan will sap any remaining kinetic energy, especially as the new Gaza is rebuilt and the promise of economic development materializes.
5) According to Bloomberg rebuilding Gaza could cost more than $80 billion. Someone has to pay for it and it won't be American taxpayers. Revenue from natural gas is the obvious solution.
IT WON'T BE EASY
None of this will be easy. There are still enormous challenges. But they are solvable:
>Dangle pipeline transit fees and/or offtake agreements with Jordan and Egypt to help settle Gaza's population...
>Trump leans on Qatar to pay Syria extra transit fees to help quickly rebuild that war-torn country...
>Massive infrastructure projects could provide jobs for young men in the region, reducing unrest. Gas flowing uninterrupted to Europe will bring untold riches to places that haven't seen real economic development in decades.
THE REWARDS
If this strategy works, the rewards for Trump—and U.S. foreign policy—could be huge:
Would it be a stretch to see a Trump-brokered Saudi-Israel normalization?
What about a broader Middle East accord that integrates Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Saudi, the UAE and Qatar into a regional economic pact?
Plus, this would lock Russia out of Europe's energy matrix for a generation - an enormous win for America.
Selling gas to Europe could facilitate all of this.
CONCLUSION
Trump’s decision to remove Palestinians from Gaza may seem extreme. But when viewed through the lens of energy strategy, it makes more sense.
Now we’ll see if his administration can pull off one of the most complicated foreign policy moves in U.S. history.
Great piece, nice writing.
Phenomenal piece